ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Diabetes often places a large burden on people with diabetes (hereafter 'patients') and the society, that is, in part attributable to its complications. However, evidence from models predicting diabetes complications in patients remains unclear. With the collaboration of patient partners, we aimed to describe existing prediction models of physical and mental health complications of diabetes. METHODS: Building on existing frameworks, we systematically searched for studies in Ovid-Medline and Embase. We included studies describing prognostic prediction models that used data from patients with pre-diabetes or any type of diabetes, published between 2000 and 2020. Independent reviewers screened articles, extracted data and narratively synthesised findings using established reporting standards. RESULTS: Overall, 78 studies reported 260 risk prediction models of cardiovascular complications (n=42 studies), mortality (n=16), kidney complications (n=14), eye complications (n=10), hypoglycaemia (n=8), nerve complications (n=3), cancer (n=2), fracture (n=2) and dementia (n=1). Prevalent complications deemed important by patients such as amputation and mental health were poorly or not at all represented. Studies primarily analysed data from older people with type 2 diabetes (n=54), with little focus on pre-diabetes (n=0), type 1 diabetes (n=8), younger (n=1) and racialised people (n=10). Per complication, predictors vary substantially between models. Studies with details of calibration and discrimination mostly exhibited good model performance. CONCLUSION: This rigorous knowledge synthesis provides evidence of gaps in the landscape of diabetes complication prediction models. Future studies should address unmet needs for analyses of complications n> and among patient groups currently under-represented in the literature and should consistently report relevant statistics. SCOPING REVIEW REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/fjubt/.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a highly prevalent chronic disease that places a large burden on individuals and health care systems. Models predicting the risk (also called predictive models) of other conditions often compare people with and without diabetes, which is of little to no relevance for people already living with diabetes (called patients). This review aims to identify and synthesize findings from existing predictive models of physical and mental health diabetes-related conditions. METHODS: We will use the scoping review frameworks developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute and Levac and colleagues. We will perform a comprehensive search for studies from Ovid MEDLINE and Embase databases. Studies involving patients with prediabetes and all types of diabetes will be considered, regardless of age and gender. We will limit the search to studies published between 2000 and 2018. There will be no restriction of studies based on country or publication language. Abstracts, full-text screening, and data extraction will be done independently by two individuals. Data abstraction will be conducted using a standard methodology. We will undertake a narrative synthesis of findings while considering the quality of the selected models according to validated and well-recognized tools and reporting standards. DISCUSSION: Predictive models are increasingly being recommended for risk assessment in treatment decision-making and clinical guidelines. This scoping review will provide an overview of existing predictive models of diabetes complications and how to apply them. By presenting people at higher risk of specific complications, this overview may help to enhance shared decision-making and preventive strategies concerning diabetes complications. Our anticipated limitation is potentially missing models because we will not search grey literature.
